The Crystal Ball Week 4

Have you ever heard of the saying, no matter how bad things look, they can always be worse? Well, that seemed to be last weekend. I knew going into the weekend that I would either look like a genius, or a complete fool. And for about an hour early Sunday afternoon, I looked like the former. After that, it became painfully obvious what the real answer was the latter. Now, I know all that any given Sunday stuff, I said it myself last week, so I am not too concerned. A few good weeks strung together, boom I am right back in the thick of things. After all, this is only week 4 of a 17 week season. And a few of the games could have gone either way, and if they did, I would have been 11 and 3. Unfortunately, they did not go my way and a few more almost went against me as well. But there were more than a few revelations that came out the weekend, besides the fact that I am a complete fool and may not know what I am doing. Let’s take a look.

Revelation: The Saints are actually new! - The Saints came marching home, right over top of Atlanta and doing their best General Sherman impression the entire way. Wow, what a stellar performance. After seeing their overall play on Monday night, color me impressed. Balanced offensive attack coupled with a tenacious defense and an opportunistic special teams unit and suddenly the Saints look like a real team. Everyone kept talking about Atlanta’s much vaunted running attack, and the Saints took that right out of the equation and forced Michael Vick to put the game on his shoulders, where everyone knows is a bad place to expect a win from the Falcons. Excellent game plan, execution and spirit from the Saints. I had my reservations on how improved they may actually be, seeing as they have yet to play someone. Now, unless Atlanta is overrated (possible but doubtful), their previous two opponents were really crappy (likely) or New Orleans was running on pure emotion (also possible), it seems like they might actually have a semblance of a team in New Orleans. And thank goodness, because they desperately need one. My heart said pick the Saints, my head said the Falcons. The morale of the story? Always listen to your heart, it knows best.

Revelation: One and a half quarters of good football does not make up for three bad ones. – Yeah, yeah, I got all wrapped up in that Eli Manning has come of age crap just like everyone else. What I forgot, and most everyone else too, was for the first three quarters against Philly, he stunk worse than a skunk in an outhouse. If I had paid attention to that, well, I would have wised up and took the logical choice, which was Seattle. Nope, I did not. And before I knew it, it was 35-3, and was I ever chagrined. He had a great quarter, but overall he was still the same inconsistent, shaky quarterback he has shown thus far in his career. No more benefit of the doubt for him or the Giants. Shockey was right, they were outplayed and out coached, and badly.

Revelation: One defense is tougher than we thought, and the other offense still stinks. – The 3-0 Ravens had to kick a 52 yard field goal in the waning seconds to beat the Browns. I know I said the Browns could pull off the upset, and very nearly did. Now, it is looking to me that their defense is far stouter than anyone could have thought, and if their offense could generate a few more points, they might be a team. And is it just me, or do the Ravens look like the same old Ravens on offense? You too? Yeah, that’s what I thought as well. Poor running, bad passing and terrible play calls. It will catch up with them, let’s say, this week.

Revelation: Better start ringing out those road jerseys for any leftover residual luck. – Three weeks in and the Super Bowl champions are 1-2, two games behind in the division, stuck in third and have to travel to San Diego next week to face the potentially 3-0 Chargers in primetime. They got to the desperation point a lot faster this season didn’t they? Well, they had best start playing like each game is a season ender. They looked undisciplined, lackadaisical and outclassed last week when it counted most. That game was one they should have won, and for large chunks of it they dominated the Bengals. But they did not put them away, and let Cincy hang around until it bit them in the ass and hard. I don’t know where the lack of concentration is coming from, but a few thoughts. Did having Tommy Maddox around as a mentor really make that much of a difference in Ben’s game, or is the effects of three surgeries in 10 months and the whirlwind of his first two seasons starting to catch up with him? Is the possible retirement of Cowher becoming a clubhouse distraction? Is the defense feeling the pressure of having to pick up the slack left by the offense? The loss of Randle El is showing up more on both the return game and in the passing game, with every defense keying on Ward and no one stepping up as a go to guy on returns. Will they be able to find a way around these issues? Do they have a real option for a short yardage back, since Staley seems to be nothing more than a sideline mascot and Davenport has yet to see the field? If they do not, will Willie Parker be able to handle a season of pounding the ball up the middle and 30 carries a game? It’s a long season, and we are only three games into it, but these are some big questions that had best get answered quickly if Pittsburgh wishes to be anything more than a one bowl wonder.

Revelation: Home is no longer where the heart is. – Much has been made of the underdog and away teams this year, and with good reason. Last week alone, of the 14 contests played on Sunday and Monday night, 10 teams won away from their stadium. Only 4 home teams managed to win in front of their faithful fans. And at least one of those was in serious doubt. Is it possible Pittsburgh’s historic march on the road through the playoffs last year made every other team go, wait, we can win on the road too! Home field advantage, at least thus far this season, seems to have gone the way of the single bar facemask.

Revelation: One and a half quarters of bad football does not color the rest of the season. – Yeah, the Eagles collapsed against the Giants, but they obviously moved past it quickly with a resounding victory over the 49ers. Every team can have some bad moments from game to game. Every team has a bunch of bad things happen and loses a game. A good team moves past it quickly.

Revelation: Veteran leadership and skills really do mean something after all. – Brady has no one to throw to, and their kicker cannot seem to get the ball past the line of scrimmage. In three games, he already has as many blocked kicks as Adam Vinatieri had in 10 years. Their defense looks all over the place, and not able to stop passing or really stuff the run. The time may have come where letting go of all those veterans and leaders has caught up to them. They did not look like the Patriot juggernaut of only two years ago. They looked like a team of a few veterans and a bunch of role players that are not sure of their role. And Brady looks sick of throwing till his arm falls off with very little to show for it. I would have been less surprised if he had been the one that threw up during the game. He knows how to win, and if things keep going the way they have, it looks like he is going to learn how to lose as well.

Revelation: Age is a relative number. – Before last week, Brett Favre should have retired two years ago and Mark Brunell was holding up the coronation of Jason Campbell. They were both too old and lost too much to be effective anymore. Last week, both dug down and found that extra something, showing that they still have a little magic left. It may have only been for one week, Brett still has a long season with a lot of young teammates, and Brunell may not be able to hold off the calls for Campbell forever, but it was nice to see these two fling the ball around and look like great quarterbacks once again. And who knows, maybe they found a fountain of youth. It would seem as though Morten Anderson has. He managed to provide Atlanta with their only points. Not bad for a 46 year old gentleman. Good luck with your season Morten, and to Brett and Mark, show these petulant youngsters how it’s really done. No, seriously, Brett, come to Pittsburgh and give Ben a few pointers. I think he forgot some stuff over the summer. You can stop by on your way to Philadelphia. It’s on the way, no big deal.

So after looking over my debacle from last week, I am not sure if I am thinking too much about each pick, or not enough. It may be too much, since I spent a lot of time on the Colts/Jaguars match up when I KNOW I should have gone with Manning in the RCA dome. He does not need a running game, he likes to pass, and is real good at it, in case anyone did not realize it. I must have had a gas leak around me when I thought that one out. And I spent way too much time on the Washington/Houston game as well. Never, never, never pick Houston, no matter where they are playing, unless it is against Tennessee or Oakland! Seriously, I must have fallen on my head or something. You know this is not a winning organization. They passed up Reggie Bush! They obviously do not think things out clearly! Well, neither do I, so I guess we are even. This week, no agonizing over picks, no major thought processes, no scanning for buried nuggets. I know better from first impressions. I knew the Chiefs were going to struggle right away, and I stuck with it. Now they are 0-2 and up against it early. See? That gut thing might be worth something. So this week, let’s listen to our guts. Less thinking, more feeling. Hey, its football, it’s all about guts anyway! Now, if I have another horrible week, I can just blame it on not having thought it through properly. Hmmmm, maybe I should look into a career in politics.

This week’s bye teams are Denver, N.Y. Giants, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Denver is going in after a good win over New England Sunday night, probably glad for the win, and the ability to allow the calls for Cutler to die down and let Plummer be their quarterback. Remember, experience counts. The Giants I am sure are glad for the bye, to let everyone in the locker room cool off and regroup for the tough games that follow this week. Plus, the week off will help put the shellacking they took in Seattle out of their minds. Tampa Bay is still reeling, and probably wishes they had two bye weeks. Chris Simms out with a ruptured spleen? How hard did he get hit? If that is not a sign of problems with protection, I do not know what is. Here is to hoping he has a speedy, and full, recovery. Watch as Gruden spends the week off looking for a veteran QB in the classifieds and a fountain of youth for his defense. You can gauge his desperation on whether or not he calls Vinnie Testaverde. And Pittsburgh, well, I do not know what to say. Here is what they better do on their off week. Get their offense in sync. Roethlisberger better spend almost the entire time practicing throws to all his receivers while they practice running their routes. Cowher better practice and then double check his decision making, including leaving Heath Miller off the field for most of the fourth quarter. Colclough had best be practicing fielding kicks of every kind. Everyone had better be reading the rule books, and highlighting sections regarding excessive celebration and unsportsmanlike conduct. Everyone had also better work on their overall execution, composure and ability to hold onto the damn ball. This is no longer the preseason boys; this is the real thing, these games count. Every receiver but Hines had better find a way to make themselves a viable threat on the field, and Hines needs to work on his separation and hamstring. And Troy had best get that shoulder into some kind of shape where he can lay a hit on someone. Because next week, they go to San Diego for a big Sunday night showdown, and I will be sitting 4 rows behind the Steelers bench. And I will tell you now, if they do not play better than they have the past two weeks, I will be one very unhappy Pittsburgh fan. Mainly because I know all hope of the Super Bowl will be gone. Not that they cannot overcome a 1-3 start, but every time I have seen them play and win in San Diego, they won the Super Bowl the same year. Ok, so that only happened once, last year, but I would like it to be a trend that continues.

One other note before the good stuff. No TO discussion here. I could go into all the reasons why and why not, but it is this simple. I refuse to add to the miles of print that are already dedicated to him, especially since most of us could care less. These few sentences are already too much. Enough.

Now, for the weekly update. I shudder to even show this.

Last Week: 6-8
Season to Date: 25-21

Ok, so the overall record is still a winner. But at the rate I am going, it looks that by week 7, I will actually go 0-14. If that happens, at least I know by then each week will get better than the last. Of course, with the way I’m picking, I’ll manage to lose the bye weeks too. I do not feel as bad about it after looking at how some of the experts did last week with their picks. Many were either barely above 500 or below it as well. Not many had a stellar week, either. Thank goodness I do not have any money riding on this. Oh wait, I do. Blast! Oh well. Like they said in that one episode of the Simpson’s, when you are right 52% of the time, you are wrong 48%. Now, take a look at these picks while I try to find Lisa Simpson’s phone number……


Arizona at Atlanta

Atlanta is at home, and looking for revenge over getting embarrassed on Monday night. Arizona is feeling gutted after losing a game at home they had won on a bad fumble. Initial reports were that they had had enough and were starting Matt Leinart. Apparently, that was an erroneous report and they are going to stick with Sure Hands Warner. Good call. Almost as good as ignoring any upgrades on the offensive line. I hope Edge got a lot of guaranteed money in that contract. Possible trap game, but I am taking the home team, which may be a mistake considering their track records as of late.

Atlanta over Arizona


Dallas at Tennessee

This one needs absolutely no thought. Tennessee is a mess; Dallas has a good team and has had a week of rest. And even with the Owens turmoil, I don’t think that will affect much on the field, especially since he was not expected to play at first. So you do the math. Instead of pouring over the obvious, I have something else on my mind.

Is anyone else excited about a Mohawk comeback? I don’t mean those stupid faux hawks that are sported by metrosexuals everywhere. I mean a full fledged Mr. T Mohawk! A few players are sporting them this season, and I think it’s a fashion statement that needs a comeback. They look cool, and if you can pull one off, you look like a real badass. Plus, it’s a hair style that works no matter what color or race you may be, truly a hair style without discrimination! And women that can pull one off have this dangerous/sexy aura where you know she could eat you alive and spit you out, but you are drawn to her nonetheless. Yowza! What more could you want?

Dallas over Tennessee


Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets

Ho hum, another week, another Colts win. I need to remember, no matter how much he may bug me, or how much he is CONSTANTLY on TV, Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the league, at least during the regular season. And he has already won in the Meadowlands once this year, twice will not be an issue for him. Yes, the Jets looked good last week, but Peyton will be ready. And if you think Eric Mangini will have an aura about him and be able to use some of that old Patriots voodoo magic and beat Manning, remember that last year Peyton finally kicked that monkey off his back and beat the Pats in Foxboro. Who was New England’s defensive coordinator last year? That is correct, it was Eric Mangini.

Indianapolis over N.Y. Jets


Miami at Houston *

Ok, I know what you are thinking; I really should go dunk my head in a bucket of ice water to clear the cobwebs out. After my mini rant above about Houston, how exactly could I even debate picking them again this week over Miami? Because, that is how little I think of Miami. They barely beat Tennessee at home. They lost to Pittsburgh, which seems more and more embarrassing as time goes by, and then lost, after 11 days rest, to Buffalo at home. Let’s just say my feelings for Daunte and his much heralded comeback are muted, at best. And Houston has to win one sometime. They are not Oakland, after all. But this week?

Miami over Houston


New Orleans at Carolina *

New Orleans played with a lot of emotion on Monday night, and they might be drained after that performance. And any other year, I’d say Carolina ten times in a row. But this is not any other year, New Orleans is out to show they are better, and since Carolina has lost two of three and had trouble with lowly Tampa Bay last week, with their quarterback battling a ruptured spleen no less, my initial decision is clouded. This is a possible trap game, since New Orleans is coming down from an emotional win in the Superdome, and Carolina is beginning to find their offense and defense. This is a tough call for sure. But since Steve Smith is back in the line up….Eh, who cares, I’ll pay for it one way or the other.

Carolina over New Orleans


Minnesota at Buffalo *

Minnesota played Chicago really tough. It looked like they might even win the game all the way until the end. Either Brad Childress is finding a team under all the scandal and distractions, or is squeezing every drop out of them like a used toothpaste tube. Whichever it turns out to be, it is working for the moment. Buffalo has a lot of talent, but are young and it shows. Plus, they have J.P. Losman at the controls, and that always makes me wiggy.

Minnesota over Buffalo


San Diego at Baltimore

I still say Baltimore’s defense is overrated; they are older than you think. Tell me if they have played anyone yet that has a real offense. I know their offense is overrated, when you can only squeeze out 15 points against the Browns and 28 against Oakland. I have plenty of doubts about San Diego as well, especially since Marty Schottenheimer is involved, but not this week.

San Diego over Baltimore


San Francisco at Kansas City *

Frisco is looking super frisky this year. I think they mined a few nuggets in recent drafts. BOOOOOOO! Bad pun! Eh, no one else uses it, thought I would separate myself with one. I do not think they will win a ton of games, but they will turn a few heads for sure. Kansas City had a week off to assess their damages, but no magic will fix their problems. Green is still out, they have no real upgrade in their offensive line and while their defense played tough against Denver, I think that was out of desperation more than anything. Add to that the bad karma surrounding the team with the whole Herm Edwards abandoning the Jets to greener pastures nonsense, and I think this one is pretty clear. Another possible trap game, but I have to go with the hot hand, even if it is just lukewarm. And hey, I haven’t tried for an absurd upset type pick yet, how about now.

San Francisco over Kansas City


Detroit at St. Louis

St. Louis pulled one out of the jaws of defeat last week. Ok, it fell out of Warner’s hands and into their laps, much to my chagrin because up until that point, I was looking pretty smart. I have no idea if this new conservative offense the Rams are running is any good, but their defense is playing better, and will definitely play better than Detroit’s, especially in St. Louis. Although, you can just feel it coming, how much Mike Martz would love to stick it to the Rams in their own stadium. I bet he has been salivating all week for this game. But honestly, what real weapons does he have that can compete with a decent defense? Gut, what do you say? Yep, I agree.

St. Louis over Detroit


Cleveland at Oakland

No thought needed whatsoever. Cleveland is showing some strength on defense, and, well, Oakland is involved.

I need to get to the movies and see Jackass, number 2. The first one was hilarious, swinging rapidly between fall out of the chair laughing and gut churning cringing. I am sure this will be the same way. And as an added side note, is there anything better than those video shows where people hurt themselves? I don’t mean America’s Funniest Home Videos, which is a terrible show. I mean ones like, Totally Outrageous Videos and When Good Times Go Bad. Whenever I find one on cable, I cannot resist. It’s like I am a fly, and I see that bright buzzing blue light and I have to go straight for it. There is nothing better than to watch people with no common sense attempt to do something that anyone in their right mind would look at and think, oh, this will not end well. And it never does end well and usually there ends up being some sort of injury involved. The most oft injured part? Pride and humility. They ALWAYS come away badly wounded! It’s similar to watching Oakland fans in the fourth quarter trying to rally their team to victory.

Cleveland over Oakland


Jacksonville at Washington *

On the surface, a tough call. Jacksonville lost a tough one to the Colts, who they ran all over and had control of through the first half. The Redskins showed some offense for the first time this year in Houston. But my gut tells me Jacksonville. I don’t know why, I know Washington is better than their record, but the only team they have beaten is Houston, and they have lost to good teams. Jacksonville is a good team. Then again, so is Washington, and they started to turn their season around last year after a win in Texas. Ugh, either way I’ll be wrong.

Jacksonville over Washington


New England at Cincinnati *

This is the week New England’s veteran exodus catches up with them. I know, it is a classic trap game. New England is feeling like their backs are against the wall, with a bad loss last week against Denver, and not being overly impressive in their 2 wins. And New England just does not lose two weeks in a row. Couple that with a Cincinnati team that is feeling overconfident after beating Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh. However, they were not overly impressive, and their run game was atrocious, as was their run defense and they know it. New England can still run the ball effectively, and can possibly exploit this. But, Carson Palmer is itching for a big day to show he’s back, and New England’s pass defense is suspect at best. Plus, Cincy’s secondary is aggressive and can take advantage of New England’s questionable receiving corps. Of course, there are still a couple of days before game time, and at least a few of the players could get arrested before then. It certainly is plausible. Seriously, how stupid is Odell Thurman? Woof, the Cincinnati Jail Breakers is a column in itself. I almost feel bad for Cincinnati. They have suffered for years with a crappy team, and now, finally, when it looks as though they have something, half the team behaves as though their former team was the Mean Machine. How long before some fan at a Bengals game calls the team’s new jerk hotline on one of the players? I’ll take the over on Thanksgiving, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it occurs before. Anyway, as I said, this is a possible trap game, since Cincy was not overly impressive last week, and at least for the near future, you should never count out New England, especially if their back is against the wall. Let’s check in with the expert, gut? You got it. But if you are wrong……

Cincinnati over New England


Seattle at Chicago *

This was a hard choice when I first saw it, and then I saw that Shawn Alexander has a broken foot and will be out for at least a few weeks. If Chicago does not have to respect their running game, they can just key on the passing game. If that happens, Hasselbeck will have a very long day, and the Bears can take a big step forward toward some respect as a team to beat in the NFC. I know Alexander was not a huge factor in dismantling the Giants, but he still had to be respected and keyed on when he was on the field. He is the reigning league MVP. It made Hasselbeck’s job of putting the game on his shoulders much easier. One thing that bugs me is Seattle’s new 4 WR set, with four good receivers. The Bears had trouble last year just defending Steve Smith. How are they going to handle four? It leaves me a little uneasy. But, the game is in Chicago, home of da Cubs, polish sausage, and DA BEARS.

Chicago over Seattle


Green Bay at Philadelphia

This could be a good match up, especially if Favre keeps playing like the Favre of old. His assessment of the talent level in Green Bay may be correct, but they are young, and just starting to come together. Philly looks strong again, very strong, actually. They do not look to be letting the loss of Kearse affect them, at least mentally. I know his loss could be a factor at some point this season, but for now they seem to be adapting and overcoming. I cannot see the Eagles letting another one at home get away from them. Not if they hope to move further this season, and keep the Philly faithful from a full scale riot.

Philadelphia over Green Bay


Note: Ok, so I did all the picks on Tuesday. Ran through them fast and with a vengeance. Then I sat on this all week, double checking and confirming what I liked, and agonized and flipped back and forth on about half of them. I marked them with an asterisk for fun; just to see how bad I screwed those up come next Tuesday. So, yeah, I totally over thought all of them. So much for gut picks. At least I’ll know why I got fried this week. Excuse me; I have to go smash my fingers in a door now.

Growing up is hard to do

As we get older, we move beyond the things of our youth. By choice, station, circumstance or interest, things that captivated us at one age no longer hold the same court over us later in life. Sometimes it can be something as simple as having a shorter haircut, or wearing a narrower cuff, and other times it can be something as drastic as a complete lifestyle change that molds you into almost a completely different person. Usually, the changes for most of us fall somewhere in between. Things like making sure you have a steady income and reliable transportation supersede having the fridge stocked with the cheapest beer available and partying until the break of dawn. Not that either of these things are bad, this is certainly not a judgment call on how anyone lives their lives. But typically, all night parties and reckless living are staples of youth, and we tend to put those things on the shelf in our memories as we get older. Sure, every once in a while we’ll get the urge to play with them, pull them down and dust them off, and see if we remember how it goes. Sometimes, they are still fun and we have a good time. Usually afterwards we realize that we cannot keep doing them as often as we used to, when we were younger and had unlimited energy, no fear and felt no pain. But they are nice once in a while and still fun. As we get older, we take them down less and less, until one day they just stay on the shelf, to be looked upon fondly as a reminder of a different time in our lives.

With each year that passes, more things from youth are put on this shelf, left to collect dust like an old trophy, the shine worn off in spots as the details of the victory become faded. They are moved there to make room for new interests, fascinations and responsibilities that come up in life. Paths we choose require different interests and responsibilities, and sometimes these push out older ones and relegate them to the shelf. Other times, these items are just past their time, and no longer important or fun to us. And other times, they are just stupid things we picked up, and should have been put on the shelf long ago, but we kept them around for all the wrong reasons, and now realize it is well past time to hang them up and move on.

Of all the changes that life has thrown at me, it is now time to put another impetuous item of youth on the shelf. And this one, I do not want to take down and give a whirl ever again. Since I was 20, I have smoked cigarettes. And since I was 22, minus a few brief stints here and there, it has been a regular habit. Not one I am proud of, but one I must be honest about if I am to give myself the proper shot at kicking this habit and finally proudly hoisting the banner of ex-smoker. Like many dumb things of youth, it started innocently enough. It was a way to stage a small sort of rebellion against the man, showing the world that I was the rebellious youth who didn’t care about anything, conjuring the images of James Dean and Marlon Brando, former icons of rebellious youth, and Steve McQueen, an icon of cool. Of course, all these men are dead, McQueen far younger than he should have been due to lung cancer. When you are young, you must also be stupid. It goes with the territory.

But at the time thoughts of cancer, heart disease, poor circulation, limited lung capacity and all the other great things that go with smoking were the farthest thing from any of our minds. It was a fun thing to do. You went out to a party or to a bar; you would pick up a pack on the way, no big deal. That night, in the midst of the drinking and carousing and merry making, you would have a butt or two or three, and share them with your crowd. It was a great social thing. You need to break away, go for a smoke break. You want to get someone alone for some one on one, say, hey, let’s go have a drag. No big deal. I have had many a great conversation with a Rogue’s Gallery of people just by going out and having a smoke. It is a very social thing, in the right circles. I know that sounds odd, especially since it is such an anti social behavior, but it can be a very social thing. Plus, at the time, smoking and drinking always seemed to go hand in hand. Perhaps that comes from too many old movies, or watching too many adults partake in similar activities. For me, they just seemed right together, like peanut butter and jelly or turkey and Thanksgiving. Once again, it sounds quite stupid, but it made sense. Anyone who has ever been a regular smoker I am sure can easily relate.

But the tendrils of addiction are seductive, and subtle. They slowly wrap themselves around you, ensnaring you while you do not even realize it. Looking back, it was amazing how quickly and easily I slipped into their grasp. It was all innocent at first, like I said; grab a pack on the way out to a good time, no big deal. But then, every once in a while, you’d get a pack a little earlier, maybe in the afternoon before the party. Partake in one, just to put you in the right mood for the festivities to come. Association has set in. You have a good time at the party, you smoke at the party, and therefore smoking equals a good time. The slope has suddenly become steeper, and much more slippery. Perhaps the next day, if you have not kicked the pack, you have one; just to unwind and reminisce of the good times had the night before, you know, before you toss the remainders. The slope is a little steeper, and a little more slippery. You are hanging out with some friends, someone fires up and you think what the hell, I am hanging with my buds, we all are digging it and it’s all good. The slope becomes that much steeper, and the slipperiness increases that much more. You buy a pack even earlier before the party, just to get yourself in the right frame of mind. And a little earlier. And a little earlier. And a little earlier. Not a big deal, hey, they are just for the party. But by this time, there is no party in the near future, and no one is planning on hitting the bar scene for days on end. There is no real reason to justify the purchase other than you want them, and you need them. But its still no big deal, its just goofing around and having a good time, everyone puffs a few from time to time. You tell yourself that, and the tendrils wrap around you more. I just do it for fun; it really is not a problem. The tendrils start to get a little tighter. I can quit anytime I want, it is nothing but a casual thing for me. And by the time you get to this rationalization, you are encased head to toe by the ever constricting tendrils of addiction. But, at this point, you have no idea how deep in you really are.

I myself had no real idea how bad I was by the time I made this rationalization to myself. I had fully convinced myself that it was nothing more than a casual thing, even though by this point, around 23 years of age, I had started buying packs on a regular basis. I kept hiding it from my family; never having one around them, even my girlfriend at the time, always making sure I had my last one the day before I would see her. That shrank to the morning before, and then noon before, and then a few hours before, and then an hour before, until finally, as long as I took a quick shower, brushed my teeth really well and had some gum, no one would be the wiser and I could smoke with impunity. Even after all of these rationalizations, I still believed it was a casual habit and I could quit anytime I wanted. I finally realized I might have a problem when I went away for a weekend trip, and could not keep from sneaking a couple of smokes the entire three days. And even with this dawning realization, I hesitated in any action to stem the tide.

About this time, my brother was involved in a horrible car accident. It was a tough time, and a perfect excuse to keep smoking. This was also the time when I first acknowledged my smoking with my parents. They, of course, already knew. My dad was a smoker at the time, and we used the time to bond over cigarettes. Not the best bonding tool, but I will not regret the experience. After I was past this hurdle, it seemed as though the slope disappeared completely and I was in nothing more than total freefall into addiction. Cigarettes had me firmly in their grasp, and I was more than happy to stay.

It’s funny how habits tend to say around. We all do things out of habit. The way we walk, dress, decorate and arrange our living spaces even how and what we eat are all habits. Some are good, and some bad, but we keep them because we know them. They are comforting and remind us of something good, or perhaps allow us to block out something bad. By this time, I had moved on, having graduated from college and starting, rather unsuccessfully, to find my way in the world. There were no parties or bar scenes to really hit, and many of my friends had scattered to other places, some home to figure out the next step, some very far away. A few had remained, but not many, and those that had either never enjoyed smoking or had moved on. There was no good excuse to continue to smoke, and yet I did. I still clung on to the habit grown out of a permissive time and attitude and one I associated with many good times. A habit that should have been nipped long ago in the bud, but one I had allowed to grow into something that became a regular, and comforting, part of my life. I could not just abandon it, it was part of me and at the time, I liked that.

I also liked that it was still rebellious. As the decade progressed, the vilification of smoking, and anyone who partook, had grown by leaps and bounds. Smokers began to be viewed as the scum of society, nothing better than wharf rats that should be exterminated for daring to choose such a filthy habit. It helped me keep smoking, knowing I was such a burr under so many saddles, me being a fairly well educated youth but still continuing a habit widely known for its dangers.

Even today, knowing what I know and trying hard to break myself of the habit, I still feel that if someone chooses to smoke, it is their business. It bothers me that other people feel the need to push their noses into other peoples’ business so much, they feel it is their right to control how they live their lives. By now, we all are aware of the dangers of smoking. It is dangerous, stupid and will shorten your life span. It is a drain on medical resources, pollutes the air and makes you smell like smoke. You never notice it, but everyone else around you will. Every time I thought I was fooling someone, I never was. The smell hangs on you like a beacon. A sandwich board saying hey I smoke would be less subtle. It is not a good thing. But if you feel the need, you should be allowed to do it, and not be treated like an animal for doing it. We all do things that bug someone else, but they let it pass because that is what we want to do, and we give them the same quarter. People burping with impunity bugs me, but I have friends who find a good release by doing it. And who am I to say anything? They tolerate my smoking, I can tolerate their burping. It is a trade off we make with friendships. Everyone has annoying habits, but if you like the person, you look past them and let them live their lives. Even with me no longer smoking, I’ll still ignore the burping, after all, sometimes it is as funny as all get out. I have seen a million other habits people have that drive me up the wall, but I do not hold that against them, or shun them because of it. It is their choice, and they have every right to make it, whether I feel it is right or wrong. That is one of the cornerstones of our society, but so many busy bodies are too busy trying to run the lives of others, while rather unsuccessfully running their own, to open their eyes and see this point.

And by this point, there is no smoking allowed in most places. Bars, airports, airplanes, trains, public buildings, government buildings, office buildings, places of employment and even outdoor public areas have all been marked as no smoking areas in most places. If you want to have a cigarette, you have to find a secret path that leads you deep within the bowels of the earth where you will find a heavily guarded 8x10 room where secret police monitor your activity closely as you just try to enjoy a butt. You think I am joking, but we are not far from that. If we are truly free, we should be allowed to make our own choices, right or wrong, and not have them made for us. This is the exact opposite of how many of those do gooder anti smoking groups seem to think. They have their ad campaigns and their commercials, all with the message of spreading the truth about the dangers of smoking and the evils of the tobacco industry. Funny, though, how a lot of their truth is not based on actual fact. If you doubt, please find on DVD the episode of Penn and Teller’s Bullshit where they delve into second hand smoke. It was quite the eye opener for me. And this was made by two gentlemen who hate smoking, yet they felt the need to present the real facts, and not those presented by a biased group looking to win favor and support for their own desires. I am certainly not condoning smoking, nor would I ever encourage it. It is a terrible habit that is beyond difficult to kick. But this is about more than smoking, it is about the right to live your life as you see fit, without others interfering with it. Also, you will not see me defending the tobacco industry, but if we are really a capitalist society, then they have as much a right to produce and sell their product as say, the alcohol industry, or, as a better comparison, the fast food industry. Take a look at that the fast food industry for a while, dig a little dirt, watch Super Size Me and read Fast Food Nation, and see if you really think it is better to have Ronald McDonald around kids than Joe Camel. To me, they are one in the same. I managed to beat down Ronald, now I am after Joe.

As time continued to move by, I moved on, trying new locations and places, moving far away from my roots and things I had known for most of my life. Despite of all these changes, I still had my old friend with me, always there to provide comfort. I reconnected with many old friends, old smoking friends as well. But all of them had moved on, looking upon that as something that they once did, but it no longer held sway over them as it did me. Never was I judged by my old mates for still continuing such a moronic habit. Perhaps that was a bad thing, or a good thing. I always worked to smoke less around them or not at all if I could. I made many new friends, most of which did not smoke, unless prompted by the temptress alcohol, and even then many times they were able to resist cigarettes and her wily charms. But on occasion it gave me yet another excuse to continue. I had friends again at the occasional get together that would burn one down with me. I would never blame them, or think of them as enablers. If anything, I was the enabler, encouraging bad behavior on their part just by the mere presence of me and my cigarettes. Rationalization is the key to addiction, and my key ring was jingling full.

But as I got older, I also started to feel more of the effects of smoking. Suddenly, a night of drinking with a pack affected me the next day. I started to get hangovers, something that had never happened before. I would find myself tired more often, and come home after work completely drained. I chalked it up to my bad dietary habits, with a kicker of maybe the smokes played a small part. I took on the goal of changing those habits, and I worked, and continue to work, very hard to eat much healthier and get more movement into my body. It worked wonders. I felt much better, looked much better, and felt good that I was doing something to help prolong my life. But then I noticed new aches and pains, weird stuff in places I never felt before. This could not be from bad diet or too much weight; this could only be one thing, cigarettes. Now, finally, I started to plant seeds of quitting, but parts of me still resisted, and heavily. I was wrapped up in it so deep now, it was much harder than I ever imagined.

But as the aches and pains continued, a new opponent to smoking arose, fear. I could not easily explain away these pains, nor rationalize them, and that led to fear. Fear of what I was doing to myself and what could happen to me if I continued down this path. My father smoked for 40 years. Most of his life, he had a cigarette in his hand. I have been smoking for over 10 years, a third of my life. I do not want to get to 40 years smoking. I would rather get to 40 years smoke free. I know his life long addiction played a major part in having open heart surgery. Our family has a history of heart disease, and cigarettes only exasperate that. I know one day I will have to deal with heart disease, but why must I bring it on myself sooner than needed. There is no need for that, when I can do something about it now.

I woke up one morning and realized, smoking is no longer the comfortable old friend I once knew. Now, smoking was like the smelly, inconsiderate house guest that does not realize it is time to go home. It does not fit into my life any longer. I want to be more active, to try more things and be fit again, like I was in my youth. I do not want to wake up in the morning feeling like crap, but to feel good, and alive. I do not want to feel barely functional by the end of the day, but energetic and ready for what the evening may bring. I want to live life to the fullest and not be limited in what I do or where I go, because I cannot smoke there or because I do not have the stamina or energy to do the things I choose. I know to get to that point, I must add more exercise and outdoor activities to my healthy living, and to do that, it is time to put this holdover of youth on the shelf with the others.

I believe, having been a smoker and working hard to become an ex-smoker, that the psychological addiction to cigarettes is much more powerful than the physical. There is definitely a physical addiction, no doubt. But it is the psychological aspect that is the real tough nut to crack. It is a habit that after awhile, you begin to associate with everything you do. Driving, walking, reading, writing, watching TV, hanging out with friends, going to bars, parties, parks, games, movies and just about anything else becomes associated with smoking. It is always there, no matter what you do. You do all of these things enough with a cigarette, the idea of doing them without one almost becomes foreign. You cannot imagine doing them and not having a pack on you. It feels strange, uncomfortable, and not normal, because you have taken one major identifier and constant of all those things away. I recently went to a housewarming party and managed to ruin a whole pack of cigarettes. How you ask? I had them in the pocket of my swim trunks when I jumped in the pool. I could not even go out to the pool without having them on me, because it felt strange. Luckily, or unluckily, I had smoked enough that I always had that spare pack with me, just in case. It is a mental addiction as much, or more, than it is physical. That is where addiction truly wraps its most powerful tendrils, right around your mind.

I feel and empathize with anyone who fights addiction. It is very tough, and some moments it seems like it may almost be impossible. But if you really, truly reach the point where you look at yourself and say, no more, you can do it. There is always a way. I know I have finally reached that point in my life, and no matter how difficult it is, I will always remind myself of how much better my life will be when cigarettes are gone. My life improved greatly when I kicked fast food out of it, it can improve that much more without cigarettes too. I cannot imagine how difficult it must be for those addicted to something stronger, and I wish them all the luck and urge them to seek the help of medical professionals, qualified psychiatrists, friends, family, coworkers and anyone else they can enlist. The bigger the support group, the better off you will be. I have been working on telling everyone I know that I am through, and all have been nothing but encouraging, supportive and helpful. Knowing that I have these people in my life that care for me, love me and want the best for me and want to see me kick this as much as I do helps tremendously.

At the beginning of the year, I made my first attempt. I thought I was ready, but I did not know the power of the beast I was fighting. Addiction is strong, and does not give up easily just because you decided to change. I started out strong, feeling good about myself. Many of the odd aches and pains went away. I started to feel better about myself, and feel healthier in general. I did well for a while, but if there was a chink in the armor, a hole that opened up, or an opportunity to be exploited, addiction found it. I would have a drag here and there, and it tasted good and that initial rush was back, and it felt great. Long time smokers never feel the rush anymore, the buzz of that first few drags off of a smoke, because we smoke so much it goes away. But when you have not had one in a while, and you light up, that buzz can be such a rush. It feels great, and you can feel it spread all over your body. It can even make you a bit loopy. This is one of the ways addiction gets you in the first place, looking to recapture that buzz. After awhile, it becomes nothing more than to keep from bottoming out. So addiction kept exploiting holes and using them to its advantage. I could rationalize anything suddenly. You know, it’s been a super stressful day, you should have one. It’s no big deal, as long as you dump the rest when you are done. I’d buy it, and the pack, have one or maybe two, toss the rest and not think about it. No big deal. This went on for a few weeks, with me never going more than two or three days without being able to rationalize it and talk myself into stopping at the nearest convenience store. I would sneak out of the house and do it at night, or when going for the paper, so my girlfriend wouldn’t know. I did not want to face the fact that I was back on that slope, and I certainly did not want it pointed out to me or to disappoint. But I was right there on that slope, desperately looking for any traction while it was tilting again faster than ever.

We took a trip to Las Vegas for the weekend, and that was way easy to rationalize. It’s Vegas, everyone smokes there! I stocked up like I was shipping out for the Congo. All the while promising they would be gone after the weekend. In a vain attempt to convince myself I had control, I even threw most of them away on the way out of the hotel. But, still, I smoked on the way home, convinced I was in charge. But the next day, I had one or two. As I did the day after that, and the day after that, and even the day after that. By the end of the month, which was particularly stressful at work, it was all over. I was back full time. Addiction had me again, and she was holding on tight.

This was 3 ½ months ago. I have thought since then how much I need to quit. When the aches and pains came back, I knew it was well past time. I laid out a plan. This time, I do not want to quit, but trade one vice for the other. I purchased wrist weights for when I walk, hand grips to keep with me when I get an urge, and a stability ball for an exercise regime. Since smoking is also a good way to pass the time when you are bored, I bought a few books I have been meaning to read, to occupy my time and mind on something other than burning a few down. I prepared myself for the road ahead, knowing the urges would always be there, and always crop up, but that each time I had to fight them, and after each successful fight, the next one would be a little easier. I bought a stock of nicotine patches, to help stave off the physical cravings and step slowly out of their grip as I battle the psychological aspects. I know some feel as though that is not really quitting, that it is a crutch that holds off really quitting and makes it easier to fall back into the clutches of smoking. My dad is not keen on those or any other stop smoking devices. When he quit for good, he just put them down and never picked them up again. I admire him for that, but I also know how persuasive my own mind can be. Perhaps I am not as strong as he is mentally to kick both sides of the addiction at once. To me, that is ok. To me, how I do it does not matter, as long as I do it. And if I have a tool I think will work, I am going put that tool in my arsenal and use every means at my disposal to defeat this enemy. I finally admitted to myself that I can never be a casual smoker. I cannot be the type of person that goes out one evening, has two or three, and then never has the urge to smoke again. That will never be me. I know you can say never say never, and who knows, there might be a time when that could be true. But I doubt it. I know how fast I was seduced in the first place, and I would rather not take a chance of falling back again.

Monday September 25th was the day on which I moved to the shelf, with unsteady but sure hands, the habit of smoking. I have been without cigarettes for two plus days now. It may seem insignificant in the macrocosm of things, but to me, it is a giant step forward. So far, it has been going well. I know I will have tougher days ahead, and that the urges will strike sometimes with the ferocity of a hurricane. But the toughest hurdle is past. The one where I said no more, meant it, and started down the path of recovery. I know since I finally got past addiction and all her wiles and actually started, each day will be a little bit easier. This morning, I noticed some of the aches and pains have dissipated, and with feeling a bit better, I believe in the coming days and weeks the rest will follow suit. I have dealt with the urges by using my hand grippers. After a few weeks, I’ll be able to tear apart a lobster bare handed with how much I am using them. But that is a bonus. Plus, combined with the wrist weights, and the start of the exercise program, I will help myself with both keeping any weight gain off as well as giving me something else to focus on besides how much addiction is telling me I want a cigarette. I read once that if you do something for 16 days, it becomes a habit. I am working on not doing something for that amount of time and hoping for the same results. I know if I can make it 16 days without lighting up or even so much as taking one drag, I will be well on my way and have more power to be able to conquer this. This is day three. Only 13 more to go until the first milestone is complete. After that, only 4 more to follow and I will be free. I will need to be ever vigilant of getting back on that slope, but I will be free. By my calculations, I will be off the patch program by the beginning of December, and by the 20th, will have put in 16 days of no patches and no cigarettes, and no smoking will officially be my habit. I can then look up at the shelf, and be proud, for once, of seeing this worn out trophy of impetuous youth, knowing I have strived hard and finally have a handle on it. Knowing for once, it does not hold sway over me, but I hold sway over it. I can say, with a small laugh, ahhh, how crazy was I to do that! By the time I look upon that shelf, I will have given myself the best gift of all, the gift of a longer, healthier life.

Now excuse me, I have reached the end and my mind is telling me that since the goal has been accomplished, it is time for a smoke. I really need to get my paws on my hand gripper and fast to quell the beast within. The urges wait for nothing.

The Crystal Ball Week 3

Hello sports fans! Or maybe sports fan? Anyone left after last week? I hope no one used my picks as a basis in an attempt to double your paycheck. It certainly was not a stellar week, not horrible, but not stellar by any means. And hey, it could have been worse, last season I started off the first two weeks 6-10. But that is the beauty of football, there is always next week, and as the saying goes, anything can happen on any given Sunday. And we have a new name here, so perhaps that will add to the success. Of course, with only two weeks under our belts, it is still tough to see who will be good and who will be, well, Oakland. With that in mind, let us forge forward and see if we can get back to double digit wins this week.

A few observations before we get to the weekly tally and the games themselves.….

I think of all the networks, NBC is by far the best with their broadcasts. Their game coverage is excellent, they have the best broadcasting team by far, even if John Madden has slipped and tends to do little more than spend the game praising his favorite player or players. Al Michaels is great at the play by play, and they have, at least thus far, resisted too much of the ridiculous sideline banter and human interest stories that have pervaded too much of many game broadcasts. Of course, this is NBC, home of the Olympics, where every athlete had to combat incredible odds, no one believing in them except the beloved family member who passed away just weeks before the event and is a long shot in every event they will enter. So it will only be a matter of time before we start hearing these kinds of stories about each team and player after every other play.

Not to go too far off onto a tangent, but is it just me, or is every single athlete in the Olympics the most hard luck athlete that has ever made it onto the Olympic team? I mean, it seems that they try to make each one as this super determined person who all they had to train and make it to the Olympics was a dirt road and a pair of old sneakers someone gave them from a second hand shop, and they had to battle against those who never believed, and personal tragedy and poverty and starvation and any other form of hardship you can imagine. I know there are athletes who do battle incredible odds to make it to the Olympics, but anymore its either participants from other countries, or long shots at qualifiers in this country that we really never hear about, because they did not make it. The U.S. Olympic team is one of the best funded, best sponsored, best equipped, best trained and best coached Olympic programs in the world. As far as facilities, money, equipment, time, coaching, medical care, nutrition and gear, most members of the team want for nothing. There are a few parts of the team that do not have every benefit, and you have to look pretty far down, at say curling or other teams of that stature, to find them. But for majority of team members, they have almost every benefit, and not many are really true hard luck cases who make it to the Olympics on a wing and a prayer. If they made it, their wing and prayer days are over. Ok, enough of that, back to the NFL coverage.

I also enjoy NBC’s pregame show, Football Night in America. I love the title, a nice play on Hockey Night in Canada, the long running Hockey program in of our northern neighbors. I thought that homage was nothing short of inspired. Plus their crew is a good one. Bob Costas is always entertaining and very informed for being a sportscaster who covers many different sports. Cris Collinsworth is excellent, although his pro Bengals, anti Steelers stance always bugs me. Yeah, you can tell he tries to mute it, but watch him this Sunday when they go to air after the game and see how he is when (I will never say if) Pittsburgh wins. Sterling Sharpe is a polished and knowledgeable football guy, and definitely brings something good to the table. And what can I say about Jerome Bettis? Ok, maybe a few things. He is definitely new to this, and you can see his hesitation at times, like he wants to say something, but is unsure of when to jump into the fray. However, he is getting better and more assertive, and he does know his stuff. Plus, it is interesting to hear from a guy who has just retired and his take on the games and players. The two biggest drawbacks they have? First, they are not NFL Primetime. I did love that show, and miss Chris Berman and Tom Jackson. They had the day’s coverage down to a science. This crew is good, and I am sure they will get better. But I still miss Boomer and Jackson. At least they still live on after the Sunday night game. The other issue I have is the constant sponsorship throughout the program. It seems like every feature, key play or player of the day has a sponsor. A few times, I did not know if I was watching a football program or a telethon. Other than that, it is an excellent start to the new football era at NBC.

What happened in Philadelphia? I watched the entire game, and until mid 4th quarter, was feeling great about my pick. Then I watched as Philly cooled and the Giants heated up, making the Eagles pay for relaxing after building a comfortable lead. If the Eagles continue to not close out games, it will be a long season for the Birds.

How about those Browns? Yeah, they got blown out, and were not even in the game, to be truthful. But they played tough all the way to the end. They banged up the Bengals, leaving them with a long injury list for next week and a perfect excuse when they lose. Plus, they popped Chad Johnson so hard, he lay on the turf afterward muttering, where’s 85 at? I could watch that clip over and over again. The Browns may not have the ammunition to make much of a run, but at least they are learning to hit people, and that is always a great start.

Boy did Carolina screw me hard! They were on their way to righting their season and proving me right, and then they pull a boneheaded move with that lateral on the punt return that failed miserably, turned the ball over to Minnesota in position to tie the game, and then ultimately win it. John Fox, I know you are a better coach than that. Now, do not get me wrong, I love a good trick play. Heck, I have watched enough of the Bill Cowher Steelers to know the fun and joy of a well executed trick play. I did not want anyone to think I was hating on trick plays themselves. But, there is a time and a place, and that was neither. Woof.

And speaking of woof, how about that dog of a game that Pittsburgh played on Monday night? Big Ben, and the entire offense, looked out of sync and tentative all night long. The defense played fairly well, although was definitely tiring from being on the field so much as the game wore on. Plus, Troy looked like a shell of himself. I think his injured shoulder is affecting him more than anyone knows.

But on the other side of the ball, Jacksonville played a hell of a game. Stifling defense that held Pittsburgh, a run first, ball control team, to 26 yards rushing. That is incredible. Plus, I gained a lot of respect for Jack Del Rio. After that second interception was returned to the Pittsburgh 1 yard line, he could have easily punched it in and had the final score be 16-0. But he showed some definite class by kneeling on the ball and running out the clock. This is a smart coach, who knows it is very well possible that they could face Pittsburgh in the playoffs, so why embarrass them now, and piss them off for later, by twisting the knife with a meaningless touchdown. I found the move very classy and smart. Jacksonville is in very good hands.

This is the first bye week, so there are only 14 games each week from now until December. The four teams that have the weekend off are Dallas, Kansas City, Oakland and San Diego. Dallas could probably use it, to evaluate their young talent and see what they are going to do about Bledsoe, who seems to be showing his age as the calls for Tony Romo grow greater. Oh, and there is, of course, the current Owens drama. Oh no, TO broke his finger, whatever shall they do? They will be fine. He’ll be out this week of course, and the following week as well. But the week after, when Dallas plays Philadelphia, I guarantee Owens will suddenly be ready to play. Put money on that. Kansas City could definitely use the time off to try to figure out what to do with their quarterback situation and their now suddenly ineffective offense. Of course, I don’t know how one off week will heal Trent Green and suddenly bring cohesion to a patchwork offensive line, but stranger things have happened. San Diego is probably wishing they did not have the week off, and could feast on another NFL also ran instead of cooling their heels. This week off may stop everyone from performing more instant history and anointing them the Super Bowl combatants. They should relax, they play Oakland again. Ahhhh, and Oakland. I really do not know what to say. Maybe its best they go now to Walter, he cannot do any worse than Brooks. The only thing I can say is they probably wish every week was a bye week, at least they cannot lose.

Now, for the weekly update. Not as good this week, but not horrid.

Last Week: 9-7
Season to Date: 19-13

At least I still have a winning record, and an overall winning record to boot. Some of this week’s games seem like no brainers, and others seem almost impossible to pick. Be forewarned, some of these are absolute guesses because neither team has shown me any sort of an edge, either against their opponent this week or in the very young season in general. And considering how well teams have been playing on the road this season, I am not sure if there is such thing as home field advantage anymore. There are a few games where I believe it will make a difference, but for the most part it may be a moot point. But, is it not all just one big guess anyway until the teams actually play? Of course it is, that is the fun of it. Picking a team, and then convincing yourself that they can win, even if it seems like the pick is right out of left field. Now, how about we get to some games and see if that can be improved upon.


Carolina at Tampa Bay

A battle between two beatens. Here are two tough teams that were preseason playoff contenders. But a funny thing happened once the games started to matter, neither have been able to pull it together enough to score a victory. And after this game, one of them will drop to an early season 0-3. Now, this is not insurmountable, but it does start one off with a sour taste in them mouth. I think Carolina is not far off from righting the ship. Besides the ill advised trick play on the punt return, they had control of most of the game in Minnesota, and should have won. Tampa Bay, however, looks to be worse off than anyone thought. Chris Simms cannot seem to find the level of consistency he found last year, the offense has yet to score a touchdown, and the defense seems to have suddenly aged before our eyes. More than 5 of their defensive starters are over the age of thirty. Now, this should not be that big of a deal, but in a defense that is built primarily on speed, it can be dangerous. If Atlanta’s kicking game had been better, they probably would have scored more on Tampa. I look for Carolina to right the ship, and Tampa’s to spring another leak.

Carolina over Tampa Bay


Chicago at Minnesota

The first match up of unbeaten teams we come across in our games. Chicago has jumped out of the gate, and right on top of its first two division rivals, fully intent on staking its claim to the NFC North crown. They have been impressive in their victories thus far, with a stifling defense and Rex Grossman being the quarterback they hoped for and leading a suddenly effective offense. I have already heard some early predictors talking Chicago will go to the Super Bowl. I could see that, if they actually played anyone yet. Minnesota has shown some resilience and ability to play from behind. And they did have an impressive road win in Washington as well as a nice overtime win over Carolina. Perhaps they may be Chicago’s first real test, or maybe they are just smoke and mirrors. Only time will tell, but I think this week Chicago establishes their dominance over their division.

Chicago over Minnesota


Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

The first of two games between these heated divisional rivals. The next one will not come until the season finale in Cincinnati, so enjoy the match up now, because everything could be decided by then. Cincy is still smarting from their playoff loss to Pittsburgh last year, and would love to enact some revenge on the Steelers for knocking them out of the playoffs, and knocking Carson Palmer out of the game. The problem is they played a tough game against the Browns last week, and are a bit beat up right now. Conversely, Pittsburgh is smarting from that awful Monday night loss, and would like the salve of a nice home victory to make everything right. With Cincy’s injuries and suspensions, and Ben getting right with the offense, I think Pittsburgh takes this one at home and tightens up the division while keeping chase with Baltimore.

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati


Green Bay at Detroit

Not really sure where to go with this one. Another division match up, but considering their play to start the season, neither has shown much of anything. Green Bay finally found the end zone last week, but it was to no avail as their defense could not stop New Orleans. Detroit is looking particularly awful on offense, and after playing Seattle tough the first week, does not look that much better on defense. And with the entire flap going on around Detroit, and players not seeming to care enough, I am seeing their preseason hopes for something different begin to unravel. I have to go with Green Bay. At least Favre cares, and maybe a little mojo will hit away from Lambeau Field.

Green Bay over Detroit


Jacksonville at Indianapolis

This may be the toughest game to call all week. Indianapolis played tough against the Giants, but still played it to the wire and could have lost if it were not for some bad clock management near the end of the game. And last week they beat up on Houston, but still managed to give up 24 points to the Texans. I know the Colts have never been known for defense, and their unit is built more for speed than brute force, but that is still a lot of points to give up to an opponent you outclass. Jacksonville has shown they are one of the toughest teams, and defensive units, in the league when they stood up on Monday night and punched Pittsburgh right in the mouth. It was an impressive showing to say the least. They have a few things in their favor. One, Indy does not have that strong of a running game yet. Addai is good, and will get better, but he is not an established game breaker like James was. This plays right into the Jaguar’s hands as they showed how stout their run defense can be. If they shut them down early, and force Peyton to pass, not always a good option for any opposing team, they can render the Colts one dimensional and play against that. Two, their defense is very similar to Pittsburgh’s, in personnel, toughness, hitting and disguising schemes. We all saw what that kind of defense can do against the Colts last year in the playoffs. And three, this is Jacksonville’s divisional rival, and the team they will be gunning for all year. You know they want to make up for losing to them last year, and badly. This is an especially tough call since they are playing in the ultra noisy RCA Dome. But, I have to go with my gut and what I have seen so far, and one team has definitely impressed me more than the other.

Jacksonville over Indianapolis


N.Y. Jets at Buffalo

This looks like it could be a good game. The Jets did not come through for me against New England like I had hoped, but they did make a whale of a game of it near the end. I do see them being better and keeping games close. And Buffalo, well, could we have a return of the Halcyon days in Albany? It is still way too early to tell, but their decision to draft defense seems to be paying off. It looks like the division may not just be New England and three other teams any more. Hard to pick one or the other, but I have to go with Buffalo, if for no other reason than they are playing at home in front of what will surely be a raucous crowd. Not that being at home has helped many teams this year, but I think it may make a difference in this game.

Buffalo over N.Y. Jets


Tennessee at Miami

Looking at this week, there are not too many great match ups, and this is not one of them. Tennessee looked atrocious against San Diego last week, and it seems as though the bleeding will not stop anytime soon. After being the defacto starter once they shipped out Steve McNair, Billy Volek went from starter, to 2nd string, to 3rd string and basically nothing more than a roster spot, to now playing backup in San Diego. I know Billy would never be the next Joe Montana, but he is a decent quarterback who can manage a game or two. I would love to know what he did to fall out of favor so fast. Now they have Vince Young at backup, who is far from ready to take over the reigns, and Kerry Collins, who has shown his best years may be behind him and is taking a ridiculous amount of punishment behind their inept line. It does not look well for the Titans. Miami, meanwhile, is confusing everyone. This team was a preseason playoff pick; some even had them in the Super Bowl. Now they are two weeks in and in an 0-2 hole. Fear not Dolphin faithful, they may not right the ship this week, but they will get a win. And if they do not, well, then things are worse in South Florida than anyone knew.

Miami over Tennessee


Washington at Houston

I am calling this the flip a coin game, because that may be how this is picked.
I am honestly not sure what to make of this game. On paper, the winner seems quite clear. Washington has the more experienced and winning coaching staff, better players, better units and a longer history. Houston, on the other hand, is with a rookie coach and staff, and coming off yet another demoralizing losing season. Looking at the match ups, it should be clear who the winner will be. But it is not. Houston has lost twice now, and while the games were not that close, they have been playing much better. David Carr, with some proper instruction, has shown signs of finally being the quarterback Houston has always hoped he could be. Now, if the offensive line could just protect him for once, he may even blossom. Washington, also, has lost its first two games. And for all their high priced talent in the booth and on the field, looks like a complete mess. Nobody is in sync, Brunell looks like he is about 100 years old, and while I know not having Clinton Portis is tough, no one seems to be stepping up and filling the void. Plus, I am beginning to wonder exactly what Al Saunders is bringing to the table, based on their offensive game plans for the first two games. They seem to at least play the Vikings tough, but it never really seemed like they were in the game last week against Dallas. I know that, because this game is such a trap, no matter who I choose it will be the wrong choice. And I have gone back and forth and have convinced myself either one can win or lose, and like neither choice. But since I have to pick one here goes nothing. Based on absolutely nothing, and as the saying goes, when in doubt, go with the home team.

Houston over Washington


Baltimore at Cleveland

Here we have another divisional match up and another tough game that could throw everyone off. Cleveland showed last week that while they may not be ready to contend for anything yet, they will not be doormats and lay down. Even down by 24 points, they were still willing to go out and pop Cincinnati right in the mouth. I love that. That is playing football. They could very well string a few victories together and be a big time spoiler later in the season as this team grows. Baltimore has yet to impress me. They had the biggest cupcake in a decade last week on their schedule and while they beat them, and soundly, it was not as impressive as it should have been. Maybe it’s my anti-Ravens bias, I am not sure, but I expected a lot more. I do think there is an outside chance Cleveland could stand up this weekend and expose Baltimore, but unless they knock McNair out for a quarter or two, I have trouble seeing how. Baltimore will make their hay this season feasting on the weak, and for the third week in a row, they have another one.

Baltimore over Cleveland


N.Y. Giants at Seattle

As I mentioned before, there are not too many great match ups this weekend, but this is definitely one of them. These two met last year in a nail biter of kicking ineptitude that New York should have won several times over, but never managed to get the final points. This year, things are a little different. Seattle has yet to show their dominant rushing game, and they have played two lower tiered teams. Perhaps losing Steve Hutchinson was worse than anyone thought. And what can I say about the Giants? They have played two tough teams, hanging in till the end against Indy, in a game the could have won if it were not for some bad clock management, and playing tough and coming back to beat Philadelphia last week. I was thoroughly impressed with their performance. Sure, they had a little luck, but you always need luck. And, they never gave up. And I must admit, I am becoming a bit of an Eli fan. I could not stand him when he first hit the league, with all the nonsense of his drafting, and the Peyton comparisons, all of it were just nauseating. But watching him take hit after hit and getting up for more showed some toughness there. He was sacked 8 times in Philadelphia, and never once did he complain, freak out or call out his offensive line. That is a smart field leader. Top that off with being cool under pressure away from home and coming through in the clutch, well you cannot ask for much more. Plus, it is nice to see a Manning call off the count before the play without all the ridiculous histrionics that you usually see. Yes I am talking about Peyton and his annoying habit of changing the play and protection constantly before the snap. Eli does have that habit, but it is not nearly as bad as Peyton, at least not yet. Hopefully he will not get worse with it as he matures. This week, I gotta go with the hot hand.

N.Y. Giants over Seattle


Philadelphia at San Francisco

San Francisco showed me something last week, they will not lie down and die for anyone either. That was an impressive victory at home. They came out ready to play against the Rams. Alex Smith is showing what a year of experience can do for you. Plus, it helps to have a few weapons at your disposal. Although, for 49er fans, here is hoping Bryant does not turn into TO part deux. Not a great showing there a few times with the nonsense on the sidelines. I know he’s young, but you have to learn to control your emotions. Philadelphia, on the other hand, looked dominant through 3 and half quarters. And then they let off the gas, let the Giants back in the game, and could not regain their momentum and blew a home win. Bad, bad, bad form by the Birds. The loss hurt big time, but losing Jevon Kearse for the year hurts worse. Now we will see if Philly really does have depth at their defensive line. I believe they do, but I don’t think they will really have to test it that much this week. I look to Philly to take out their frustrations on 49ers and show they are a good team, and not a bunch of also rans who cannot close.

Philadelphia over San Francisco


St. Louis at Arizona

Division rivals? I know they are in the same division, but considering Arizona’s long history of ineptitude, I really do not know if you can call them rivals. But if the Cardinals are serious about turning things around, and the Rams are serious about getting back to being the greatest show on turf, then this could become a decent rivalry. St. Louis missed a golden opportunity to win last week against the 49ers, and keep themselves atop the division. They have far more weapons than the 49ers, and should have beaten them easily. Conversely, Arizona has shown the ability to score some points and move the ball. However, they really do need to address their offensive line problem. If Warner keeps getting planted on his back, we will be seeing the Matt Leinart era much sooner than expected. This one is not easy, since neither has really shown me anything, but I will go with Arizona. They are home, the new digs seem to help, and St. Louis may be a little road weary. A weak justification, but until either shows me something, it is all I have.

Arizona over St. Louis


Denver at New England

As NBC has happily touted all week, a rematch of the AFC divisional round game, where Denver ended New England’s dynasty. Good gravy. You would think they toppled a government with the gravity of the advertisements. Yes, it is a rematch, but neither team seems to be where they were last year. Denver cannot seem to mount much offense at all. Jake Plummer seems to be largely ineffectual after two games, and I have to wonder if all this Jay Cutler talk has spooked him a bit under center. New England is at 2-0 and leading their division, but they have been mostly unimpressive in victory, barely holding on last week against a late surge from the Jets. I still believe losing all of that veteran talent will catch up with them eventually, but not this week. Denver had a little luck with them last year when they beat the Patriots at home, but they must have left it all there. I just have trouble seeing them do anything in Foxboro with the way they have been playing lately.

New England over Denver


Atlanta at New Orleans

Finally, after a season on the road, the Saints go rolling home. And for the first time in a long time, they go rolling into the Superdome at 2-0. Everyone is feeling good for the Saints right now, returning triumphantly to New Orleans winning and with some great players in tow, the results of some very smart off season acquisitions. There is something new in the air in New Orleans, something they desperately need, and it is called hope. I feel good for them. However, I am afraid it may come crashing down this week. Atlanta has shown that its new spread option offense will not be denied. Allowing Vick to run free and create has shown some great results early on. No one knows if Vick and Dunn can hold up to the punishment of all this running, but at least to start, it is showing some dividends. And they have taken a bold move in upgrading their atrocious kicking, signing 46 year old Morten Anderson and bringing back the second leading all time scorer into the league. Personally, I love that move and think it is fantastic. Good to see Morten in uniform again. I think at least this week they’ll keep it going, unless some Saints linebacker pops either of them good. If they keep out of trouble, they will spoil the Monday night homecoming.

Atlanta over New Orleans

Are you ready for some football, week 2 style?

Finally, a bit of fun in this space has shown up. I have decided to provide you, the lovely reader, with my NFL picks for the week. I came to this brilliant idea for a column through several reasons, including, but not limited to, ease (since I am already in a pool and need to do it anyway), for fun and not another long diatribe on something down (is it just me or has death been a prevalent feature here lately). It is one easy column a week because I have the topic and I love football and to be honest, at heart I am a lazy man. And most importantly, since every other expert does it, why cannot I? Heck, I watch and read enough about football to know something about who may or may not win. Why not put it in writing so I can look back and see how right on or wrong I was? Sounds like fun to me.

Now, a couple notes about my picks. First, I will not try to be Nostradamus and give you a final score. That is asinine and almost impossible. One of my favorite writers, Gregg Easterbrook, used to track the final score predictions of the New York Times when they still attempted to do this. I believe, by the time they stopped this practice, their success rate was 2 in roughly 1000 final scores predicted correctly. And if I remember the column when he wrapped up his tracking, this was about the same success rate if you just gave the same score for every game over the same amount of games. Breaking it down, over the next 1000 games, if I say 24-21 home team wins every time, I am bound to get 2 correct. You will definitely not see me rushing to Vegas with those odds tucked in my back pocket. So no scores. Plus, what if I was dead on every time? It would take the fun out of it for everyone, although I would definitely find a sports book to move into and fast.

Second, I do not bet the spread. These are just straight winner/loser picks. Not that I have a problem with the spread or some moral objection. I just find it a distracting addition. Why muddle it up with something like, oh, I think Green Bay will lose, but not by 15, so I will pick them. No, that means little to me since I have no money on the spread. My money is only on straight wins and losses, so that is where my guess will reside.

Third, you will not find any fantasy gems here, at least not intentionally. I do not have a fantasy team, nor am I in a league. I would be a horrible fantasy owner since all I would do is spend the whole draft looking for ways to acquire every Steeler player I could. And since that is not how you win in fantasy football, I tend to avoid the whole fantasy aspect possible. But, if you dig the fantasy, I may throw out a team tidbit here and there that could help. And if so, I get a cut of your winnings. Make the check out to cash, much easier that way.

That is about it. After that, its pretty fair game. Now, just so you know, I do not work nor am I affiliated in any way with the NFL, any major network, any sports magazine or internet site or with anyone affiliated with them, except in some far off, distant cousin sort of way I may not know about at present. These are from nothing more than a fan who reads a handful of weekly columns on a regular basis, peruses a few others along the way, has a subscription to Sports Illustrated and a much loved subscription to NFL Sunday Ticket. I do not have a notebook or anything of the sort, and when I write them, it will be from absorbed knowledge of the previous week and my own assumptions. Although, I will fact check if I decide to put additional information in. I know me some football from years of watching, learning and hanging out with the old man, who has probably forgotten more than I will ever know about the game. So why should you read this? What makes my picks better than yours, since I know as much as you? Well, no reason. But I am putting mine out there, so Nah. Plus, it will give you something to laugh at when my picks go horribly wrong.

Each week, I will also post before the picks my results from last week. Maybe even with a quick recap of how wrong I was on the games. Depth of the recap will always depend on two factors. First being if I actually watched the whole game and not just the highlights (there are always bound to be about 4 games that get the good treatment, and you are right, the Pittsburgh game will ALWAYS get the good treatment). And second, it will depend on whether I am smart and write down my thoughts as I am watching, or if I forget, get too wrapped up in the game, and then remember I forgot to write them down 3 days later and then try to restructure the thoughts that have already disappeared in my mind. So yeah, some games may be detailed, and some will just be much like, uh, I screwed up. But to save space, this week I’ll only post last weeks record, since there is no picks to go from, and I really do not feel like trying to reconstruct them.

Last Week: 10-6
Season to date: 10-6

Not too bad of a start. Let’s see how consistent I can keep it up. Although last week was a weird one with 11 road teams winning. Usually, most teams in the first few weeks of the season get a bump at home, but who knows. It takes a few weeks to find out who really has a shot and who is just smoke and mirrors. But keeping road performance in mind, I am saying home field advantage be damned!

I may add or subtract a few things as the weeks go on. Plus I am not sure exactly what I will write for each game. I guess that will come to me as I work on each one. I am trying something new, so we will see how it goes. But for now, without further fanfare and babbling, here are my choices for this week.


Cleveland at Cincinnati

Division rivals square off in Cincy’s home opener. The Browns looked ok vs. New Orleans last week, but show that year two of Romeo Crennel’s rebuilding will be only a little less painful than year one. The Brownies still have a ways to go, but are showing some signs of life. Having Kellen Winslow actually playing will go a long way in making progress. Center Hank Fraley, acquired in a trade from Philadelphia, showed signs of not being fully acclimated to the Browns playbook and terminology, but he is a grade A center and will catch on fast. Cincinnati showed me little in beating the heck out of the Chiefs last week, whom I do not rate too highly. More on that later. But, they are the defending division champs, and Carson Palmer does seem to be back to his old self. We should see for sure when he goes up against the Browns secondary. Truthfully, I do not think we will see how good the Bungles can be until they face a quality opponent, and they face far more this year than they did last year. I question their secondary and I do not think they did anything to improve their run defense. But this week, it will matter little.

Cincinnati over Cleveland


Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Wow, what the deuce happened to Tampa Bay last week? Opening game jitters? Forgot the plays due to over exuberance? Gruden had them wound too tight? Yikes, you tell me. I have no idea. And many had them as a sexy preseason Super Bowl pick. It is hard to tell a lot from just one game. Remember, last season Denver got shellacked in Miami on opening day, and they ended the season in the AFC Championship game. So you cannot take too much from one performance. Start taking more from it when you see two or three like that. As for Atlanta, where can I turn in my Michael Vick fan club membership? Not to bust too much on Vick, because he is a superior athlete, but he is a terrible quarterback. Sure, he can be great now, and Atlanta is being smart by learning how to really utilize his skills and his legs. But who will he be when he starts to slow down and his legs can no longer skirt him downfield to avoid danger or make something happen out of nothing, and he still cannot hit a target? Oh, I know, the answer is Kordell Stewart without the fragile ego! John Abraham, though, was a fantastic pick up for them in the off season, but does he really have a groin injury, or is it smoke and mirrors? I guess we will see on Sunday. A tough one for sure, but someone has got to win. I think Gruden will have the boys looking to take their embarrassment out on someone, and the Falcons, riding a little too high, will be that someone.

Tampa Bay over Atlanta


Buffalo at Miami

It seemed for a time there Buffalo might join the ranks of the road warriors last weekend and pull out an upset in New England. But the Patriot machine managed to roll back; grasp the lead and not let go, letting poor Buffalo fans bemoan another loss. Of course, I am not sure if that shows there may be signs of life in Albany, or perhaps the Pats are not yet up to snuff. But the Pats are for later. Buffalo for once showed some strength. We’ll have to see how long it lasts. Miami, well, they are starting Daunte Culpepper at quarterback. Daunte seems healed from his knee injury, but not his bad decision making. I thought he was exposed last year when he no longer had Randy Moss to save his bacon, but after getting his knee torn apart he was given a pass. Maybe the change of scenery will help, but having Mike Mularky as his offensive coordinator will not. Regardless, I don’t think Saban will make the same mistake with the challenge flag this week, and if they get Ronnie Brown some more carries, they’ll take this game.

Miami over Buffalo


Detroit at Chicago

Is there a new wind blowing in Detroit? It seems as though Rod Marinelli has the Lions playing tough, as shown by taking the NFC champs to the wire. But, they are still the Lions, and they are still run by Matt Millen, so until they start racking up some wins, no benefit of the doubt will be given. The Bears still have their crushing defense, not like Green Bay is much of a test, and Rex Grossman seems desperate to put to rest any inkling of a quarterback controversy. Once again, not that Green Bay is much of a test. I think the Lions will put up more fight than the Packers, but Da Bears will shut them down in their home opener.

Chicago over Detroit


New Orleans at Green Bay

Oh when the Saints, go marching in….Oh when the Saints go marching in. Yes, the return of the NFL gypsies’ ladies and gentleman. America’s favorite team is back, and apparently for once, retooled in a positive way. While still waiting for their triumphant return to the Superdome, the Saints play their second game of the season on the road as well. Not like it affected them much, as they played a good one in Cleveland last week, and showcased the debut of Reggie Bush. Ok, I know it was only one game, but he sure did look good, did he not? I wonder how many Houston fans watched that game and threw up in their mouths as they screamed, WE SHOULD HAVE HAD HIM!!! Probably more than they would care to admit. Now Mr. Bush gets to try his hand at fabled Lambeau field, where the current version of the Packers would make Vince Lombardi say, Green Bay? Nope, I never coached there. The Pack keeps holding on to their mid 90’s glory with Favre, and it seems so does Favre. The worst kept secret of this travesty being that Favre came back hoping to get traded to a contender and let the Pack get something for rebuilding, although he would never say that for fear of open fan revolt. And the Pack would never trade away Favre, knowing how he can still move the turnstile and merchandise, also for fear of open fan revolt. I am a huge fan of a player staying with one team his whole career, but Favre should either be more open to helping Aaron Rodgers along or moving along himself so Green Bay no longer lives in his shadow and can properly rebuild with a real coach and not some goofy choice because he once worked with Favre. Ugh. Many have already said it, and I agree it’s going to be a long season for the Packer faithful. Unless there is a little magic left in number 4, or some others start picking up the slack, I see another debacle on the not yet frozen tundra. I almost cannot believe I am saying this, but……

New Orleans over Green Bay


Houston at Indianapolis

I feel bad for Houston fans. They loved their Oilers back in the day. And then they got screwed by yet another greedy owner and lost their team, only to watch them go to the Super Bowl a few scant years after bolting. I would be willing to bet a few of them felt some satisfaction watching them fall a yard short of winning. After the wound heals, they finally get their own franchise again, and then they have to watch this travesty take the field. From first glances, it seems they might finally have a decent coach, who looks even in the first game to be making some progress with David Carr. I do believe Carr can be a good NFL quarterback. But one thing seems to still be escaping them. To be a good quarterback, Carr needs to remain VERTICAL. He was sacked 5 times last week. I think by the time they give that man some protection, he’ll have fallen apart. Plus, they watch the team not take Reggie Bush, and then watch Bush tear it up for New Orleans. Where does the pain end? Not in Indy this week, that is for sure. Peyton and the boys looked a little rusty and sloppy last week, although so did a lot of teams. And for once Peyton seemed to be able to throw under pressure. Something he had lots of trouble doing in the divisional playoffs last year, much to my joy. I think after enduring the slugfest in New York last week, they will feast on the Texans. Although, Indy’s lack of finishing drives last Sunday did give me pause, but that could be just opening game rust. Or it could be a sign of bigger problems with a diminished running game. It will be interesting to see how that development plays out.

Indianapolis over Houston


Oakland at Baltimore

Good Lord, how bad was Oakland on Monday night? Well, I guess so much for better matches on Monday Night Football. They keep showing games like that, no one is going to tune in, no matter how good Tony Kornheiser will be. And one side note on the crew. I like Kornheiser, I thought that was an excellent call, and he seems to be proving it so far. And while I cannot stand Theismann in any way, it is nice to hear Tony call out the stupid things that come out of Joe’s mouth. That is almost worth listening to Joe’s nonsensical comments. Seriously, did this guy really play football? I know more than this nimrod! And Mike Tirico? Talk about bringing absolutely nothing to the table. If they are going to save this crew, keep Kornheiser, drop Tirico and bring in a more dynamic and knowledgeable play by play man, and give Tony a cut off switch hooked up to Theismann’s mic. Then you might have something. Ok, back to the game stuff.

Seriously, Oakland, I really do not know what to say. For years, it seemed like the place where older players went to rot and die, and that perception is only slightly altered. I believe Al Davis has completely lost his mind. How can they justify the decisions they made in the off season? Do they really think Aaron Brooks is an upgrade at quarterback? Did they not watch any Saints games over the past 6 years? They would have been better with the immobile Collins under center. Hiring Art Shell, who has not coached in the NFL since Oakland FIRED HIM 14 years ago? I have no idea where that came from either. It’s like they completely forgot why they fired him, although it was pretty much on display Monday night. I mean its 4 and goal with 6 seconds left in the game. You’ve been decimated by a shaky Chargers team. Go for the easy field goal points, avoid the home shutout, and give your boys a little dignity and maybe a slight bit of hope for next week. What does he do? He runs a long, drawn out play that wastes all the time and gets nothing out of it. If I were a Raiders fan, I would be livid. Most of them are probably numb by years of this and keep themselves medicated on tailgate brews. I do not blame them one bit. They will need more this season. I honestly got online to look at their schedule to see if they had any hope for a win, and it really does not look good. I am glad we play them, though. I am already counting that one as a shoe in win.

And tell me how Baltimore, who were horrid last year, can go from NFL also ran to Super Bowl XLI champs in one game? Ok, yes, they destroyed Tampa Bay, no doubt about that. But it is still only one game. And while Steve McNair looked good, what happens when he has his inevitable injury that puts him on the bench for 3 or more games? Then they have to turn to Kyle Boller, who they managed to emasculate and crush his confidence by taking his job away from him and giving it to McNair. Then it all falls to the running game and the defense, and you can stop a one dimensional offense. So like the last few years, they look to their D to keep them in games, and BOOM, looks like a losing streak to me, especially with 4 tough division games this year in the super tough AFC North, 2 against Pittsburgh and 2 against Cincinnati. Until I see a few more wins like last week against quality opponents, I am not buying it. Of course, that may be because I do not want to buy it. This week, however, they should roll and roll hard.

Baltimore over Oakland


NY Giants at Philadelphia

Not a bad first showing by the Giants last week. The defense looked tough, and their rookie backup running back looked strong. They played stupid though. Their running game was obviously clicking. They have two really good backs, and Tiki Barber looks like he is picking up where he left off last year. But instead of jamming the ball down the Colts throat, as they should have because it was working on the Colts undersized D, they went too much to relying on Eli to win the game with his arm. They could have pounded the Colts all night into submission with their stellar run game, but chose not to, and then when they had to win with the pass, they were almost out of time and out of time outs. Plus, they had too many stupid decisions. Shockey, when you have less than a minute left and no time outs, STEP OUT OF BOUNDS. High school players know that. They have a pretty good team there, but a lot of tough games and if they keep looking to Eli to be Peyton now instead of the third year quarterback he is, they will lose them. Philadelphia, on the other hand, looks rejuvenated with a healthy McNabb and a great new dangerous deep threat in Donte Stallworth. That was a great pick up before the season. Philly should be congratulated on a smart move that is already paying dividends. And while they did not play a quality opponent in week 1, they are the only team in the division with a win. And now they get to take that momentum and open at home. The birds will get their first true test of the season, and I think they will pass.

Philadelphia over NY Giants


Carolina at Minnesota

Wow, so much for the preseason Super Bowl winner. I know, only one game and Steve Smith did not even play due to two, count them two, bad hamstrings. But does not Jake Delhomme know he has other receivers? They have a few on the team, maybe he should look for them once in a while. He may find it helps them win a game or two. And I cannot decide if Minnesota looked good, or if Washington was just playing that crappy. Still hard to tell, maybe this week will help. Two things I do know, Hutchinson was a great addition to their line, and the new uniforms look like crap. What was wrong with the old purple ones? They brought back images of the Purple People Eaters, and there is nothing wrong with reminders of previous success. I think Carolina will start to right the ship. They have a few huge injuries, but their biggest issue last week was watching Vick give them fits with his legs. Brad Johnson could not be as mobile as Vick if he were strapped to a Segway. That alone might make life for their defense a little easier.

Carolina over Minnesota


Arizona at Seattle

Welcome fans to perennial sleeper pick Arizona! Yes, each year they are called out as a sleeper pick by EVERYONE, thus negating them as sleepers, and each year they fall flat. Not this year, though. This year they have a brand spanking new stadium, sold out on season tickets, stole Edgerrin James from the Colts, drafted uber QB Matt Leinart and are poised for greatness! Except, they had to fight for a win with a shootout against San Francisco, which I chalk up to bad defense on both sides as opposed to good offense. But at least they won. And the Edge had a decent game, but every yard was tough. Their main problem? They have the same crappy offensive line as last year. I do not care how good your skill position players are, if they are not protected, they cannot win games. Watch them, and you will see. A good defense will exploit that line, stuff the Edge and put Warner on his back. It will happen. And then the Arizona coaching staff will look around like they cannot believe this is happening. It is high comedy. Speaking of good defense, this week they play Seattle. Now, Seattle had way more trouble with Detroit last week than they should have and it could be from a multitude of things. First game jitters and rust, haunted by the demons of Ford Field from Super Bowl XL (and no, I really could not help myself), not feeling it because even though they are the defending NFC champs they start the season not in a marquee game but against crappy Detroit, or even they are feeling the loss of Steve Hutchinson more than they realized. It could be any or none of those items. But unless they are about to suffer the Madden Curse, or really are going to live up to the recent Super Bowl Loser curse, I think they still own this division and will give the high flying Cards a large dose of reality, especially in Qwest Field.

Seattle over Arizona


St. Louis at San Francisco

Well, I think St. Louis might really be a sleeper pick this year. I read a column by Bill Simmons, and he was jumping on the St. Louis bandwagon, stating they were going to be the true sleeper this year. Considering the running game they showed, and a rather stout defense, I am somewhat inclined to agree. However, it was only one game, and they were not able to finish any drives. All their points came on field goals last week. Perhaps they are still getting their legs underneath them, but that is not a great sign. You need to be effective in the red zone to win consistently, which seems like a no brainer, but some teams just act like they cannot grasp that concept. But, it is only one game. San Francisco, however, seems like they might be working their way out of the cellar. Not far, but at least out. Alex Smith showed some maturity, and their offense showed some signs of life battling Arizona. They might win a few this year, but not their home opener.

St. Louis over San Francisco


New England at NY Jets

Is the party over? I must say, the mighty Patriots did not look all that mighty on Sunday. Playing at home, with a raucous crowd behind them, they pretty much stunk up the joint. And if it were not for a few bad decisions by Buffalo, they very well could have lost. I think this off season, New England has created too much bad karma for themselves and now it will catch up with them. For years they have been fine with cutting people and filling in the gaps instead of paying for them, and now I believe they have gone too far. They dumped defensive leader/linebacker Willie McGinest, who then followed his previously departed defensive coordinator to Cleveland. Right before the season, they find themselves in a linebacker shortage, so what do they do? They sign freshly retired and then unretired Junior Seau, who has not been effective in about 4 years. They say goodbye to Adam Vinateri, their clutch kicker who won them two, count them two, Super Bowls on his foot alone. Instead they pull Martin Gramatica out of moth balls and draft some kid out of college and look to them to make their big, clutch kicks. I bet that kid shanks one when it really matters. Vinateri was immediately snatched up by the Colts, who put him on display Sunday night. Yep, he still looks good to me. Kickers can play a long time, all they do is kick. They wear out a lot less quickly than other players. He could have been their clutch kicker for the next 10 years. I mean, seriously, isn’t Gary Anderson still kicking somewhere? Then they get into a contract dispute with Deion Branch, their only proven, healthy receiver, and instead of working it out, they ship him to Seattle. The current receiving corps numbers from last week? 4 catches for 51 yards. Yeah, it really seems like they can live without Branch. The almighty Brady cannot work his magic if he has no one to throw the ball to that can catch it. And who are the coordinators for this team, or did Belichick decide that he can coordinate both the offense and the defense, as well as be a fashion model for bum wear and cure cancer all while walking on water during each game? I know every Patriots fan is parroting the same thing, oh, Belichick has done it before, so it will be fine. But I am wondering if any of them really believe that this time. You dump your defensive leader and your clutch kicker then send your best receiver, a Super Bowl MVP no less, packing, it seems like you might have gone too far pinching pennies. I guess we’ll see, but if you have that much trouble putting away the Bills, it means either the Bills are much better, which does not help in your division, or you are much crappier than anyone thought. I hope for the latter. Meanwhile, the Jets put in a surprising effort on Sunday to pull out a win in Tennessee on the twice repaired arm of Chad Pennington. They looked pretty good, especially for being in their first year under a new coach and playing Tennessee. Who knows, maybe they will be the surprise of the division and blow away the Pats and the Dolphins. But this week, I think the Jets, riding high from Tennessee, will down the Patriots in an upset.

NY Jets over New England


Kansas City at Denver

It seems like doom and gloom for the Broncos right now. They could not get anything going against the Rams, and the talk is all about rookie Jay Cutler taking away Jake Plummer’s job at starting quarterback. Ahhh, what short memories everyone has these days. Remember the Broncos opener last season, when Denver went to Miami and got trounced? They bounced back from that pretty well, if I do recall. Not as well as Bronco fans would have liked, but I bet almost every other team in the AFC would have liked to have gone to the championship game. They will settle down, and Shanahan will work his magic this season by literally pulling a guy out of the stands and letting him rush for a 200 yard game. It really is only a matter of time before that actually happens. I would love to see that. The Broncos really should run a contest for a fan to be a back for a game. Who wouldn’t love that? They would sell a million tickets! They could advertise it, start yourself in your fantasy league and rack up points. It would be brilliant. But now we have to look at the sticky situation that is Kansas City. I said before the season even started that they would go down the toilet. Half of their offensive line retired. That right there told me the season they would have. Teams win with a consistent offensive line that plays together for a long time. One of the reasons KC has had such a great running game is consistency on the line. With 2 of the 5 gone and new guys stepping in, that is a lot to overcome. If they cannot establish a running game, then teams will just play pass, and they will get nowhere fast. Some were saying the window is closing, I say it has closed. Plus, the whole mess they created with the Herm Edwards poaching from the Jets, and you have added bad karma and a coach who has shown he can only make a mess of things. I used to be an Edwards fan, but seeing how much he screwed up in New York, now I am not so sure. Plus, add to that the loss of Trent Green for who knows how long after taking a vicious hit from Cincy, and suddenly you are relying on a rebuilt line and Damon Huard at QB? It does not spell success to me. No, Denver will assuage its battered ego this week at home against KC.

Denver over Kansas City


Tennessee at San Diego

It looked like the Titans won the quarterback lottery with stud Vince Young. But somewhere along the way, did something go wrong? Look, I know it is hard to transition to the NFL, some make it easy, and some take a long time. Couple that with trying to learn the QB position, and it could be darn near impossible. Cincinnati sat Palmer his rookie year, to help get him acclimated. Pittsburgh planned on doing the same with Roethlisberger, until Tommy Maddox went down, and then Roethlisberger changed everyone’s perception of what a rookie quarterback can do. So maybe Vince is taking a little longer to get adjusted. No biggie there. But something does not seem right when you dump your longtime franchise quarterback, actually bar him from the building, and then the two you keep are so atrocious you call in Kerry Collins, who to that point had been sitting on his couch eating Cheetos as far as anyone knew, and a week later start him in your first game. And Kerry did not have a great game, although they did stay in it. It makes me wonder how far away Tennessee may actually be. And as for San Diego, I just do not know where they are at. Sure, they looked dominant Monday night, but they were playing the Raiders, who we have already determined stink worse than limburger, and even near the end of the third quarter had only managed to put up 13 points with new starter Philip Rivers at the helm. Plus, they made a journeyman defensive tackle look like a hall of famer with all the penetration he managed to get on the Chargers O-line. I do not think we will see how good or bad the Chargers are or how well Rivers can play until they play a quality opponent. Unfortunately, that will not be this week.

San Diego over Tennessee


Washington at Dallas

Big NFC East match up of two long time rivals comes to NBC’s second Sunday night game. I am not sure what to make of this game. Washington should have beaten Minnesota last week. They have plenty of weapons thanks to Dan Snyder’s big off season shopping spree, and the addition of Al Saunders on an already crowded coaching staff should add another dimension to their offensive game plans. I know having Sean Springs out hurt, but it seemed to me they underachieved. I wonder if Antwaan Randle El is regretting his decision to follow the money since he seemed to be horribly underused in their offensive plans. And also that maybe Mark Brunell is not the answer they hoped for at quarterback. I wonder how long it will be until they promote Jason Campbell. On the other side of the ball, it would seem that Dallas has its own QB controversy brewing between Drew Bledsoe and Tony Romo. Dallas would be better to look at the future sooner than later. Bledsoe can be rattled and is about as mobile as concrete. He starts clanking too many passes, TO will quickly lose his good teammate image he is desperately trying to show us and slide right back into TO, locker room cancer. As soon as he starts feeling like he is getting short changed, look out. Dallas, you have been forewarned. Although in this game, I think he will celebrate on the star again, this time to a cacophony of cheers.

Dallas over Washington

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Ahhhh, the game of the week, well, at least in my opinion. The big Monday night showdown between the Super Bowl champs and the team that came into Pittsburgh last year and beat the future champions on their own field in an overtime game. One we should have won. It was a good game, but mistakes ultimately derailed Pittsburgh. Both of the teams match up well with each other and this figures to be another heavyweight slugfest. Oddly enough, this is Pittsburgh’s only Monday night appearance all year, although they do have several prime time games scheduled. Pittsburgh is hoping for the triumphant return of Ben Roethlisberger after yet another medical setback, this time an appendectomy. He has been practicing, but it looks to be a weekend decision by Bill Cowher. Even if he is not ready to go, Charlie Batch has shown he can handle the pressure of starting for the Steelers. Of more concern may be Troy Polamalu, who is currently listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. If Troy does not play, that severely limits some of the fire zone blitzing schemes that Uber defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau loves to throw at offenses. On the other side, Jacksonville is riding high off of a nice home opener win against Dallas, and feeling their oats. They know they beat the champs last year in their house, and now have the newly crowned champs marching into Alltel Stadium. They believe they can win, and will go in ready for Pittsburgh’s best shot. But, the loss of defensive tackle Reggie Hayward for the year due to an Achilles tendon injury will surely hurt their defensive line. This will be a good game, a real slugfest. But despite Troy’s shoulder, the Jags toughness and whether or not Roethlisberger will start, or even be effective in his first action of the year, I am going with Pittsburgh to win. Like you thought I would pick otherwise.

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

That about wraps this up. Tune in next week and we will see if I have any skill at this, or maybe just a few wise cracks.